Avalanche (AVAX) Price: Technical Analysis Shows Potential for 21% Rally

TLDR

• AVAX could rise by 21% to $25.15 if it closes a daily candle above the $21 mark
• Large transaction volume jumped by 169%, indicating strong whale and institutional interest
• Trading volume increased by 22% in 24 hours, showing heightened trader participation
• AVAX is forming potential bullish patterns including a cup and handle formation
• Technical indicators suggest mixed signals with RSI at 56 showing room for upward movement

Avalanche (AVAX) stands at a critical juncture after suffering a steep 70% decline from previous highs. Currently trading around $20.05, the cryptocurrency is showing signs of a potential upward move that has caught the attention of traders and analysts alike.

On-chain data reveals a dramatic 169% increase in large transaction volume, suggesting that whales and institutional investors are taking positions in AVAX. This surge in large trades coincides with AVAX breaking out from a bullish price pattern, which many technical analysts view as a positive sign.

The 24-hour trading period has seen AVAX’s overall volume jump by 22%, reflecting growing interest from market participants. This increased trading activity, especially following a breakout pattern, typically indicates strong bullish potential.

Avalanche Price on CoinGecko

Technical analysis across multiple timeframes paints an interesting picture for AVAX. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency appears to be moving within a descending channel pattern. It has successfully retested the lower boundary by forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is often seen as a reversal signal.

Key Price Levels to Watch

The daily timeframe shows AVAX breaking out of a descending channel pattern and approaching the completion of a cup and handle formation, which is widely recognized as a bullish continuation pattern. This setup suggests AVAX may be preparing for an upward move.

The neckline of this bullish pattern represents a crucial make-or-break point for AVAX. Analysts note that if AVAX can close a daily candle above the $21 mark, it could trigger a rally of approximately 21% to reach $25.15.

Should this momentum continue, AVAX might push even higher, potentially gaining another 25% to reach the $31.40 level in the coming days. However, this bullish thesis remains valid only if AVAX can maintain prices above the critical $21 threshold.

At present, AVAX trades below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which traditionally indicates a downtrend with weak momentum. This presents a mixed signal for traders evaluating AVAX’s prospects.

Market Sentiment and Broader Context

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AVAX stands near 56, suggesting the asset has sufficient room for an upside rally. Having crossed the neutral zone, the RSI signals potential for further bullish momentum.

AVAX’s current price action appears to be part of a broader market shift as the crypto market transitions from a downtrend to a recovery phase. The recent positive movement in Bitcoin has helped lift many altcoins, including AVAX.

Current market data shows AVAX with a market capitalization of approximately $9.03 billion. The price increased 8.31% in the last 24 hours and 11.68% over the past week, indicating strong short-term performance.

Analyzing the Trading Pattern

Some crypto analysts have described AVAX’s recent price behavior as “coiling,” a pattern where the market builds pressure within a tight range before a major breakout. While trading volume had remained low until recently, the price structure has maintained a bullish stance.

Everyone’s watching $BTC… but $AVAX is silently coiling.

Volume down. Structure up.

A dip into the box and it’s go time.

Eyes on $23.46 first, then $25.12. pic.twitter.com/MgV4AjE9eU

— RJT. WAGMI (@RJT_WAGMI) April 22, 2025

This quiet consolidation period may represent an opportunity for altcoin investors while the market’s main focus remains on Bitcoin. If AVAX breaks out as the pattern suggests, it could make rapid gains.

Chart analysis identifies important support ranges that should provide a foundation for AVAX’s potential rise. If AVAX holds these support levels and buying pressure increases, the next resistance levels to watch are at $23.46 and $25.12.

These resistance points are particularly relevant as they align with recent points where price movement reversed, making them psychologically important levels for traders.

The compression in price and the previous low trading volume likely indicate a period of accumulation rather than market weakness, suggesting that buyers have been quietly positioning themselves for a potential move higher.

For AVAX to fulfill its bullish potential, it needs to decisively break through the $21 level and close above it on a daily timeframe. Failure to do so could invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially lead to further consolidation or decline.

As traders and investors watch AVAX’s next moves carefully, the cryptocurrency market remains captivated by whether this digital asset will deliver on its bullish setup or fall short of expectations.