In one month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Hurricane Center (NHC) will lose access to critical satellite data that lets meteorologists see inside the eye of a storm. This marks the latest blow to the agency’s forecasting abilities as hurricane season gets underway.
In an abrupt move that blindsided meteorologists and public officials on Wednesday, June 25, the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) announced it was shutting down the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s (DMSP) data processing system on June 30 due to a “significant” cybersecurity risk. Owned by the Department of Defense (DoD), DMSP weather satellites have provided forecasters with critical storm data since the 1960s.
The decision sparked outrage from meteorologists and public officials, as it would cut off their access to all DMSP data and could significantly degrade forecast accuracy right at the start of hurricane season. Following pressure from NOAA and NASA officials, FNMOC postponed the shutdown until July 31, according to a NOAA message shared Monday, June 30.
“Late on Friday, June 27th, [the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (CNMOC)] received a request from Dr. Germain with NASA to postpone the removal and to continue processing and distributing DMSP data through July 31st,” the message states, referring to Karen M. St. Germain, the division director for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “An update service advisory will be sent and FNMOC now expects to decommission DMSP processing no later than July 31st.”
This will give NOAA and the NHC a few more weeks to prepare for the loss, but it’s not clear what that will look like. There is currently no plan to resume the flow of DMSP data to NOAA, even when a new Defense Department weather satellite begins operations in October, CNN reports. NOAA has publicly maintained that the change will not impact the quality of hurricane forecasting and that there are many other sources of hurricane data that will allow for forecast accuracy this season. Gizmodo reached out to the public relations offices at the NHC, DoD, U.S. Air Force, and U.S. Navy for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
The primary aim of DMSP weather satellites is to support military operations, but meteorologists have used their data for general weather prediction and storm tracking for more than 50 years. These satellites capture microwave imagery of hurricanes using a handy instrument called the Special Sensor Microwave Image Sounder, or SSMIS. This tool works like a 3D X-ray, peering through the clouds to reveal the interior structures of tropical storms and hurricanes. Observing changes to the storm’s eye and eyewall—a ring of tall thunderstorms that surrounds the eye and produces heavy rains as well as the strongest winds—can tell meteorologists whether a storm is strengthening or weakening. Having this information alerts them to major changes like rapid intensification hours before they show up in other data streams. Thus, these satellites are essential for understanding a storm’s potential impact and giving officials time to warn people in its path.
“It’s certainly one of the more important data sources that we have because it provides a unique dataset,” James Franklin, former chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, told Scientific American. “It’s the only way really to see through clouds and get a sense of the organizational structure of the core of a developing cyclone.”
Rapid intensification is notoriously difficult to predict, but catching it ahead of time is critical, as it drastically increases the extent of a hurricane’s impact. One example of this is Hurricane Milton, which made landfall in Florida on October 9, 2024. Within just 24 hours, this storm strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5, devastating the state’s west coast.
Losing access to DMSP data will make forecasting rapid intensification even more difficult for NHC meteorologists, and this isn’t the first storm-tracking tool they have lost this year. Earlier this month, it became apparent that NOAA would not be using Saildrones this hurricane season. These drone ships sail directly into storms to collect real-time data that forecasters use to predict their strength and path. Like DMSP satellites, Saildrones are particularly useful for spotting early signs of rapid intensification. NOAA has relied on them for the past four years, but this year, the California-based company was “unable to bid” on a NOAA contract, agency spokesperson Keely Belva told Gizmodo in an email.
All of this adds to growing concerns about NOAA’s readiness for hurricane season, which officially began on June 1 and ends on November 30. The agency predicts this season will be an active one, with six to 10 storms expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become “major” hurricanes—Category 3, 4, or 5. Since President Donald Trump took office, NOAA has faced sweeping staff cuts, grant freezes, and travel and training restrictions. Stripping the agency of key storm tracking tools will add to this strain.
Despite the upheaval, NOAA representatives say they are prepared. Other experts disagree. “This decision will kill people,” hurricane researcher Jimmy Yunge wrote in a message to NOAA’s Office of Satellite and Product Operations expressing concern about the loss of DMSP data. “It will lead to millions, if not billions, of USD in additional damages per event.”
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