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ZDNET's key takeaways
- Self-learning and self-improving technology will transform enterprise activities.
- From augmented leadership to machines as customers, analyst Gartner identifies key trends.
- While true autonomous business is a long way off, smart business leaders are preparing now.
The future of your business is autonomous. While there's a lot of debate right now about the augmentation or replacement of workers with artificial intelligence, the organization of the future will build on emerging technology to create new ways of working and operating.
That's according to Gabriela Vogel, vice president analyst in the Executive Leadership of Digital Business practice at research firm Gartner: "We say the future of digital is autonomous business, and AI is the tool that's leading this business change."
Also: Autonomous businesses will be powered by AI agents
While the hype around AI in the past few years has centered on the impact of generative AI, the autonomous business of the future takes digital transformation to a higher level, where new combinations of technology and data deliver new business models.
"AI is a tool; it's not the business change itself," said Vogel. "Autonomous business is when you have a strategy that uses self-learning and self-improving technology to optimize value creation and delivery."
Humans hold a significant role in traditional business models. Yet Vogel told ZDNET that agentic AI changes everything, as agents discover, negotiate, and transact autonomously.
"So, first we had analog, then we had e-commerce, and then we went to digital -- and now the new phase is autonomous business, which has four main components: autonomous operations, augmented leadership, auto-adaptable products, and machines as customers. All this change is set in a programmable economy."
1. Autonomous operations
Vogel said the digitalization of operations uses technologies, such as Internet of Things-enabled sensors, to automate elements of business operations.
"These sensors tell you, 'Look, you need this number of lubricants, your levels are going down, and you need to reorder.'"
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Autonomous operations go further, removing the human from the loop for independent decisions. Vogel gave two examples.
"John Deere has a robot with a 360-degree camera, and it calculates where fertilizer is needed, and applies it with super precision," she said. "And Ford has created a patent for a self-driving car that will return to the showroom if the client misses payments."
2. Augmented leadership
Executives in the digital phase of leadership use cloud-based platforms to view insights into business performance.
Vogel referred to HR professionals who use Workday technology to see employee-related information.
Also: 5 ways to successfully integrate AI agents into your workplace
Augmented leadership provides a new level of analysis, with proactive suggestions.
"Legal technology providers are using solutions to autonomously find contract vulnerabilities and suggest what the leadership team should do," she said. "This technology increases leadership capabilities, where you can speed up your time. You can focus on other things that are more critical to the business."
3. Auto-adaptable products
Here, Vogel said the digital phase of products includes insurance companies providing apps for clients to check potential coverage.
At the autonomous stage, auto-adaptable products use emerging technologies to automate changes.
Also: A million customer conversations with AI agents yielded this surprising lesson
Vogel referred to Next Insurance, an organization that uses AI and machine learning to simplify the purchasing process.
"This company has products for small to medium-sized enterprises, and it uses APIs and agentic AI tools to adjust the policy according to market changes and business risks," she said.
"This type of approach eliminates the need for manual renewal processes. So, the technology works autonomously and says to the client business, 'Look, here's your contract and these are the adjustments that have been made for you.'"
4. Machines as customers
Vogel said a good example of machines acting as customers is HP Instant Ink, an internet-enabled service that automatically delivers ink when users are running low.
She said retail giant Walmart is deploying AI-enabled machines to negotiate with suppliers for products not sold to consumers, such as retail equipment or shopping carts.
Also: AI's biggest impact on your workforce is still to come - 3 ways to avoid getting left behind
Vogel suggested that agent-to-agent sales interactions will become more common.
"We're starting to see this relationship between seller bots and customer bots," she said. "Another example is Tesla vehicles. These cars can diagnose issues themselves and then preorder parts that are required."
What is the programmable economy?
Vogel said the shift to autonomous business is set within a programmable economy, which Gartner defines as a smart economic system that supports or manages the production and consumption of goods and services.
"Everything I've talked about so far is all embedded around a programmable economy," she said. "You get the full autonomous business when you have all these elements."
Also: 5 ways to be a great AI agent manager, according to business leaders
While an example of a digital economy might include mobile payments to use bicycles in urban areas, Vogel said a good example of the shift to a programmable economy is a pilot by Daimler Trucks that allows trucks to communicate autonomously with other machines and carry out legally binding transactions, such as payments.
"These trucks have their own identity and legal standing, and they will exchange value services, such as electric vehicle charging, and say, 'Well, we need charging. I'll pay you in advance," she said. "So, in this example, machines pay other machines. It's a cool example that's still in prototype. But most definitely, companies will start operating in the programmable economy soon."
When will autonomous business become a reality?
The key point, said Vogel, is that the autonomous business is unlikely to manifest tomorrow.
"It will be a big thing in about 2045, that's where we're projecting," she said. "So, yeah, it's going to take a while."
However, the early shoots of growth can already be seen. Vogel said more than three-quarters (77%) of CEOs believe AI will impact their industries significantly over the next three years.
Also: 5 tips for building foundation models for AI
As she suggested earlier, AI will play a key enabling role in the establishment of autonomous business, and Gartner research suggests many organizations aren't prepared for this shift.
"When you ask CEOs, 'Is your operating model ready for this new world of AI?', only 29% say they are ready. So, there's just a lot of work to be done."
Why should I worry about autonomous business now?
Let's be honest: Twenty years is a long time -- and a lifetime in the fast-moving world of enterprise technology.
Yet Vogel said there's no room for complacency. Business and digital leaders who want to stay ahead must start preparing for autonomous business.
Also: 4 questions to ask yourself before betting on AI in your business - and why
"Some companies are working on it now, and we know that, as these systems start making autonomous decisions, these organizations will have a competitive advantage," she said.
Vogel said some industries will move faster than others. Even if your organization is in a slower-moving sector, you should consider your options now.
Also: How AI amplifies these other tech trends that matter most to business in 2025
"Autonomous business is like an S-curve. It'll start ramping up until, in 20 years, it becomes the thing everyone talks about," she said.
"Start preparing foundational technology, so that you can then make the right movements to wherever it is you want to create a more autonomous workforce."
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