Looking for a few good AI leaders - are you ready?

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ZDNET's key takeaways

• Rumors of 50% AI-related job cuts are greatly exaggerated.
• Leaders are needed to step up and keep AI efforts grounded.
• Vibe coding is the new citizen development.

What is the biggest problem with AI today? It's leadership. Good leaders are needed to tamp down expectations -- or fears -- of what AI will bring. Then, someone needs to maintain guardrails for "vibe coding," the latest form of citizen development.

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AI transformation is going to take a lot longer than we think, because companies simply don't know where to go with it. "Every day, we get announcements about new AI models. Every day someone claims we're around the corner from [artificial general intelligence]," said Tom Davenport, the AI/data analytics guru of gurus. 

Real transformation requires process redesign 

The reality on the ground is, however, that "organizations are struggling to find measurable value from generative AI," he said in a recent podcast hosted by Paul Estes. That's because "real transformation requires process redesign -- not just new tools; enterprise-level projects -- not individual prompts; and years of persistent effort." 

In other words, AI is not too different from the technology waves of the past. And these lessons get learned over and over again. Simply firing up generative AI with prompts doesn't create measurable economic value.

Davenport debunked what he calls an outright myth -- that AI will soon eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs. For example, he explained, "We talked to a bunch of insurance companies. A number of them said, 'we don't need those entry-level people anymore, because we're having AI do the tasks they used to do.' And I'd say, 'how are you going to get the experienced people of the future if you don't hire entry-level people?' And they said, 'we're not quite sure.' And every company that I've talked to has said the same thing for 12 or 13 years now. They don't have a good plan for that."

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Corporate boards and leaders need to be steered away from the notion that AI will enable their companies to chop out 50% of their white-collar workers. "Those discussions are happening at the boardroom level, but it's not going to happen," Davenport related. "Those CEOs and board members will be retired or dead before that takes place."

Simultaneously, talk of going all-in on AI is ultimately self-defeating. "It's a really bad idea to say, 'I think we won't need half of the people that we have today," Davenport explained. "That does not encourage people to try to figure out how to use AI to be more productive. It suggests that if you're too successful, you're out of here."

It's likely that AI may even necessitate the creation of new jobs we have yet to imagine. But in the meantime, the best path forward is to involve people more deeply in the AI process, starting with opening up opportunities for vibe coding.

Everyone's a citizen developer now

"AI turns us all into citizen developers," Davenport said. "I've been blown away by what I can create. It used to be that only developers could create even a webpage, or even a little web app. You had to spend hours and hours and have expertise to be able to build that."

It's important for business leaders to start to exploit these capabilities -- with guardrails. It may be tempting to employ generative AI for a range of tasks, but you may do so at your own peril. 

"You don't want your vibe coders to be developing a payroll system, or a demand deposit accounting system in a bank," Davenport cautioned. Instead, think about a red-yellow-green kind of structure, he suggested -- "Red, forget about it, doesn't make any sense. Yellow, can be possibly done by a citizen developer, but you need to have some pretty strict governance. Green fine, go ahead."

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There is also a need for individuals to take the lead in guiding AI adoption and development. "There are too many tech chiefs out there -- CIOs, CTOs, CAIOs, CDOs," said Davenport. In a survey he did, "a number of executives say there are too many, and we don't collaborate in the way we should. We'd be fine with the idea of a single tech information and data leader to manage all of this and report to the CEO."

Needed is a forward-thinking individual who orchestrates all of these AI activities, who steers clear of the hype and inflated expectations of AI. "Managing up is very important in that role," said Davenport. "You need someone who can sell the case for IT-enabled, technology-enabled and AI-enabled business change to the leadership. You won't have this if you split this role up into six or seven parts."

Transforming your business with AI means "a lot of concerted effort, change management, determination, and some visionary thinking by senior executives who are willing to see it through [to] eventually get something valuable out of it," said Davenport. "But it's not nearly as easy as people suggest it is."