A classic springtime storm setup could unleash dangerous weather across the Upper Midwest today, including damaging tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk—its second-highest threat level—for parts of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin. Thunderstorms are expected to fire up in the late afternoon and continue into the evening, bringing with them all the ingredients for a regional severe weather outbreak.
“The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening,” the SPC warned in its latest forecast, “when strong tornado potential should be maximized.” Warm, moist air is surging northward ahead of a sharp dryline—the boundary between moist and drier area along which storms form.
An incoming jet streak—fast winds high in the atmosphere—will supercharge developing storms. The greatest risk for severe storms is in the Upper Midwest, but by the mid-afternoon thunderstorms may break out as far south as Texas. However, the only area with a moderate risk is a 56,152-square-mile (145,433 square kilometer) area comprising the Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin border, an area populated by about 5.6 million people.
The greatest threats from the system are supercells capable of producing intense tornadoes, large hail (think golf balls and bigger), and damaging gusts of wind.
The threat isn’t just confined to the Midwest. Farther south, from central Oklahoma into parts of Texas, another round of supercells could form along the dryline. These storms will also carry a risk of large hail, particularly in the evening hours, the NWS bulletin stated.
If you’re in the affected area—especially where the worst weather is expected—keep track of updates from your local National Weather Service station. This is the kind of day where conditions can change fast—it costs nothing to be prepared, and its value can be priceless.
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